A quick market note for the log this week. Mortgage rates jumped, lumber stayed cheap, and there is a big new plant going up over in Longview.

Rates Hit a Three Year High

Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30 year fixed rate at 7.28% on October 1, up from 7.03% the week before. That is the highest it has been since November 2023. A year ago the same survey was at 6.34%. The 15 year fixed rose to 6.60%.

Here is what that means in real money. On a $250,000 loan, the monthly principal and interest payment at 6.34% is about $1,554. At 7.28% it is about $1,711. That is roughly $157 more every month for the same house, before taxes and insurance.

For buyers in East Texas, that is the difference between qualifying and not qualifying on a lot of starter homes. For sellers, it means fewer buyers in the pool and more of them asking for help with closing costs or a rate buydown.

Lumber Is Still Cheap

Lumber futures were about $523 per thousand board feet on October 5. Back in May 2021 they hit a record of about $1,711. So the cost of a two by four is not what is holding builders back right now. It is the cost of money.

Big Project Worth a Drive By

Ninth Avenue Foods filed plans with the state for a new dairy processing plant in Longview’s North Business Park. The filing lists a building of about 282,000 square feet, an estimated $76 million in construction, and a scheduled finish of November 2027. The Longview Economic Development Corporation says the project should bring about 150 jobs.

Projects like that matter for the whole area. New jobs bring new households, and new households need places to live. Longview, Tyler, and the small towns in between all tend to feel it.

What I Am Watching

Rates are the big one. If they settle back under 7%, more buyers may come off the fence this winter. If they keep climbing, the market will likely stay slow, and that usually favors buyers paying cash.

Fall is also land season. The leaves are starting to drop, it is cooler, and it is the best time of year to walk a piece of property and see what you are really looking at.

Greg McKinney, Mineola, Texas